Geopolitics First is a transformation in how everybody thinks about the world stage. 

Businesses are basing major operational decisions not on profits but on politics. Countries are approaching major global issues through the lens of geopolitics, from US-China to vertical globalisation.

Geopolitics First is the shadow hanging over the geopolitical themes below, representing part of the Mr. Geopolitics 2025 forecast. This year, there will be no greater driver of geopolitics than how leaders rethink and redesign their choices and goals single-handedly because of the flashpoints across the world stage.

10. Counter collectives

Blocs is yesterday’s expression. In the new geopolitical climate, counter collectives are forming, nations which are banding together against the existing world order. The most significant is Brics. Alongside Brics is the “Red Collective”. The mutual defence treaty between Russia and North Korea, silently approved by China, is a message to the west that these three countries are willing to spill blood for each other.

9. Nuclear clock

Iran almost has nuclear weapons. South Korea wants nuclear weapons. Poland is open to nuclear weapons. Ukraine has proposed building nuclear weapons.

No longer are nukes taboo or something to be abandoned. Nations across the world are turning to nuclear weapons to safeguard their interests. A clock has begun ticking around which new state will get a nuclear weapon, and how the rest of the world will respond.

8. Terrorism 3.0

The attack on the Crocus Music Hall in Moscow, Russia, killing more than 140 people, was the first warning shot that a new age of terrorism has begun. Terrorism is returning after a multi-year hiatus as old and new groups coalesce and prepare for dangerous attacks. This is the third wave (3.0) of terrorism after al-Qaeda (1.0) and Isis (2.0). At the heart of Terrorism 3.0 is geopolitics.

7. Derailed growth

So far, the interplay between geopolitics and economics, or geoeconomics, has largely revolved around trade or foreign investment. Now, however, another dimension of geoeconomics is emerging in the form of derailed economic growth. The next fights that erupt on the world stage, like the US trade actions against Europe and China, have the potential to stall economic engines or push certain economies into the red zone (i.e. recession).

6. Business war

As the “cost of geopolitics” rises, hitting profitability, organisations could run out of flexibility and patience. They might begin to clash with governments over their conduct. [...] Global companies are no longer standing on the sidelines of geopolitics. They are no longer able to stay neutral. Executives have become the new politicians, and organisations of a certain size and caliber could lose patience as geopolitics infringes on corporate borders.

5. Sovereign finance

Dozens of emerging markets are ascending into a new development phase. As they enter a new tier, their development needs are rising exponentially as society’s needs mount. This is giving rise to a new era of sovereign finance, where governments are driving their development needs with locally pooled capital, creating brand new financing vehicles. One of the first signs of this is the African Energy Bank (AEB), which is almost entirely financed by African institutions.

4. Tech self-reliance

The era when a single nation’s innovations and platforms dominated the world is about to end. Several countries are racing to establish independent and sovereign technology ecosystems, pursuing “tech self-reliance”.

With tech self-reliance, countries like China will be able to challenge the US like never before. America’s control over China, like controlling chip access, will begin to change once Beijing can produce what it needs locally in greater and greater numbers.

3. Re-dollarisation

A new fight is about to begin between the US and the world to keep the dollar in the number one spot. Trump has already threatened to target the Brics and impose a 100% tariff on nations that ditch the dollar in bilateral trade. Conditions are forming for convergence between geoeconomics and finance, as de-dollarisation on one end ignites a trade war with the US on the other.

Re-dollarisation is not just about keeping the world glued to the greenback. It is also about smashing the projects that other nations are working on to challenge the US wiring of the world.

2. Forever flashpoints

After the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq began, the term “forever wars” emerged, as the Middle Eastern conflicts seemed to have no end date. In the current era, the world is witnessing the beginning of “forever flashpoints” like US-China or Ukraine-Russia, where resolution is impossible and whose dimensions go well beyond just a physical war or economy and enter old domains like ideology. These flashpoints are about to be ignited as various dimensions become more unstable and the external environment changes.

1. Trade Zeitenwende

As the US readies new trade action against nations, the world is being affected by an amalgamation of various changes: a new economic architecture underpinned by populism and nationalism, the start of a new Bretton Woods agreement, the activation of “nuclear” trade rules (e.g., the foreign direct product rule), and the establishment of new walls that permanently restrict the US’s economic integration with the globe, starting with US adversaries.

What the US does will not just disrupt trade and the global economy. It will remake everything. This is a Zeitenwende, a historic turning point that revolves around trade.

Abishur Prakash is the founder of The Geopolitical Business, Inc, a strategic advisory firm based in Toronto, Canada. He also manages Mr. Geopolitics, a platform for executives to navigate geopolitics. Prakash is a global keynote speaker and the author of five books. His latest book is called The World Is Vertical.

To receive a full copy of Geopolitics First: The Top 10 Geopolitical Themes That Will Define 2025, please visit the following link. Concepts above like “sovereign finance” and “re-dollarisation” are concepts of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc.